MAPS Intelligence

Scenario Planning

A campaign for the future that actually arrives.

The market two years from now won’t be today’s, and nobody knows what it will be. Scenario Planning builds three plausible futures from the drivers of change you name — aging, income, technology — and designs campaigns for each, plus one that holds up in all of them. Each comes with the signals to watch and the moment to change course.

The example is an Italian pet food brand with a line of veterinary diets: names and brands have been changed.

The method

Seven concepts,
three futures and one for all.

For each scenario, a cautious concept and a bold one. The seventh is robust: it works whichever future arrives. You choose whether to bet or to hedge — seeing both side by side.

3

Safe

The cautious approach in each scenario: “Your pet’s health, even when your wallet is light.”

3

Bold

The bold approach in each scenario: the first climate-neutral veterinary diet.

1

Robust

The concept that holds up in all three: “Italian science, fair price, endless love.”

When to use it

  • When the market is uncertain and a campaign has to last more than one season.
  • When you want a strategy that is ready to change, with the signals that tell you when.
  • On horizons of one to three years, with drivers of change you can name.
The brief

The drivers
and the horizon.

On top of the brief, Scenario asks for the drivers of change — here the aging of people and pets, retirees’ income, health coverage — and the horizon: one, two or three years.

The Scenario brief: drivers of change and time horizon
The analysis

Three futures,
described and put to the test.

For each scenario: what the world looks like, which combination of drivers produces it, what it means for the brand and its communication, how likely it is, and the weak signals that announce it. Here: Sustainable Balance, Affordability Crisis, Connected Health. If you pick one other than the recommended one, the concepts give it more weight without dropping the others.

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Future scenarios: Sustainable Balance, Affordability Crisis, Connected Health, with implications and signals
The concepts

Cautious or bold,
in every future.

In the sustainable scenario, a fairly priced diet or the first climate-neutral one; in the affordability crisis, an essentials line or a partnership with discount stores; in connected health, a digital subscription or an AI-powered ecosystem. And the robust concept, which brings science, transparency and price together.

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Seven concepts by scenario: Safe, Bold and Robust
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The Methodology tab: target scenario, confirmation signals, pivot triggers, adaptation plan
The development

When to change course,
in the Methodology tab.

The development states which scenario it is built for, the signals that confirm the direction, the moment to drop it — margins, income, engagement — and how to adapt it if the future veers toward another scenario.

Alongside, the other tabs of every development: Master Copy, Channels, Art Direction, Execution.

Working with AI

The worst future,
you face it together.

On “Zero Emission Balance”, the bold concept of the first scenario: first you ask where it would perform worst, then you add a warning signal to the KPIs — in the Execution tab.

Collaborate on the development
You are working on: Master Copy
In which of the three scenarios does this concept perform worst? What should we keep an eye on?
The concept faces the greatest difficulties in Scenario 2 — Affordability Crisis, where shrinking disposable income and cost pressure push consumers toward low-cost solutions. We should monitor signals such as falling premium sales, rising searches for “cheap veterinary diet” and a drop in the QR engagement rate (below 5%).
You are working on: Execution
Add a warning signal for the Affordability Crisis scenario to the KPIs.
I added a warning KPI for the Affordability Crisis scenario, so any drop in premium sales or weak engagement with the QR code is caught right away.
Collaborate: the riskiest scenario and the warning KPI added

A question gets an answer and the document stays as it is. A change request touches only the open tab and creates a new version: the earlier ones stay, and you can go back with one click.

And then

Test, production, prototype.
As with every method.

You can’t predict the future.
You can prepare for more than one.