The pitch as a hypothesis
Every sentence in a pitch is a bet: “SMBs don’t have a tool for X,” “customers would pay Y.” The first job is to separate what is verified from what is still to be verified, and to go looking outside for evidence — or for refutation.
A five-step method
1. Start from your own documents
Pitch deck, product description, research: for a startup, research can’t start from the brand’s online presence, because there isn’t one yet. It starts from the founders’ vision and holds it up against the market.
2. Look at the arena
Established competitors, similar startups and, above all, the status quo: what customers use today, even when it isn’t a product — a spreadsheet, a vendor, a habit.
3. Explore the alternatives
Different hypotheses about who the customer is and which market to go after first. Comparing them — and keeping a history — keeps you from falling in love with the first one.
4. Test before you build
The message, the offer, the price, in front of simulated people built on the segments you found; then tests with real customers on the riskiest hypothesis.
5. Get ready for investors
Who invests in your category, with what theses, which recent rounds. And the questions that will come: traction, why now, market size, defensible advantage, team, numbers.
The most common mistakes
- Ignoring the status quo. The toughest competitor is often “doing what we’ve always done.”
- Top-down market numbers. “1% of a huge market” convinces nobody.
- Traction presented as better than it is. Investors notice.
- A single segment, chosen out of attachment. Comparing the alternatives costs very little.
