The metrics, one by one
- Value and volume sales — how much revenue comes in and how many units (or kilos, liters) are sold. If value grows faster than volume, the average price is rising.
- Market share — your sales as a share of the category total, in value or volume.
- Numeric distribution — in how many stores out of a hundred the product is present.
- Weighted distribution — the same presence, but weighted by how much those stores sell in the category. Being in a few large stores can be worth more than being in many small ones.
- Rate of sale — how much the product sells where it’s present: sales per store, or per point of weighted distribution. It measures the product’s strength on the shelf.
- Price and price index — the average price, and its ratio to the category average.
- Promotional pressure — what share of sales happens on promotion.
- SKUs — how many different products you have on the shelf.
Why share moves
The most useful question is the decomposition of the change in share. Simplifying: sales depend on where you are (distribution) and how much you sell where you are (rate of sale), within a market that’s growing or shrinking. If share rises because you got into new stores but rate of sale falls, the gain may not last. If share falls with distribution stable, the problem is on the shelf: price, promotions, product.
How to read an export
1. The market, before you
Category value and volume, how many brands, how concentrated it is: the share of the top three and the top five.
2. Your position, against the year before
Rank, sales, share, weighted distribution, sales per store, price, promotion, SKUs. Always compared with the same period of the previous year, to strip out seasonality.
3. Competitors and segments
Who went up, who went down, and in which segments of the category. A flat category can hide a fast-growing segment.
4. The drivers
Price tiers, distribution and rate of sale, promotions (with before and after), SKUs. And the decomposition of the change in share, brand by brand.
5. Channel by channel
Hypermarkets, supermarkets, discounters and specialists have different dynamics: the same brand can grow in one and lose in another.
The most common mistakes
- Looking only at share. Without distribution and rate of sale, you don’t know why it moves.
- Confusing numeric and weighted distribution. The second tells you how much your presence really weighs.
- Reading value without volume. Value growth can be price alone.
- Ignoring promotions. Sales inflated by a promotion are often “given back” in the following weeks.
- A single channel. The total can hide opposite trends.
